Unlocking Holiday Performance in a Value-First Consumer Landscape
Happy Holidays from SFIA! We hope each of you has enjoyed a successful and fulfilling 2025, both personally and professionally. As we close out the year, our goal is to bring together the wide range of holiday forecasts, consumer insights, and holiday season retail results circulating across the industry. By consolidating this information into one clear narrative, we aim to provide the sports and fitness industry with valuable context and actionable takeaways. Whether you are evaluating e‑commerce strategies, in‑store promotions, or shifting consumer preferences, this briefing is designed to help you make informed decisions and position your business for success.
A Season Marked by Deliberate Spending
The 2025 holiday season is unfolding against a backdrop of caution and recalibration. After several years of steady growth, multiple forecasts suggest that consumer spending is cooling, influenced by higher prices due in part to tariffs. PwC is warning of the first holiday spending pullback since 2020. Deloitte echoes this sentiment, projecting the weakest year-over-year holiday retail sales increase since the pandemic, with growth expected to hover between 2.9 and 3.4 percent. Bain & Company places its forecast slightly higher at 4 percent, but still below the 10-year average of 5.2 percent. The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates only modest gains of 3.7 to 4.2 percent, noting that much of this growth reflects higher prices rather than stronger demand.
For sports and fitness retailers, this environment demands a sharper focus on consumer behavior. Shoppers are not disengaging from the holiday season, but they are becoming more selective, more value-driven, and more digitally savvy. PwC’s survey highlights that gift spending is down 11 percent, with Gen Z showing the sharpest pullback. Deloitte’s consumer research similarly points to tighter budgets, with average holiday spend expected to decline by 10 percent. Circana adds that bargain-hunting is shaping the season, with many consumers starting their shopping earlier to secure deals.
This trend aligns with the latest SFIA participation data. In the First Half Game Plan: Key Moves in Sports Participation report, we are seeing – for the first time in eight years – the early signs of declining sports and fitness participation. 2025 overall physical activity, measured by the share of individuals achieving 150 minutes of moderate-intensity activity per week, is projected to slip by 0.6 percent compared to 2024 activity levels. While that may sound modest, it represents nearly two million fewer people being active. Breaking it down by category, three areas – fitness, racquet, and winter sports – registered increases, while four – individual, outdoor, team, and water sports – experienced declines. This participation data is particularly important because in the U.S., activity levels often correlate with income. If participation wanes, it may signal that households have less disposable income, a factor that could weigh on holiday spending in the sports and fitness sector.
Digital Continues to Lead the Way
E-commerce sales are projected to continue to grow this holiday season. Adobe projects 2025 online holiday sales will rise 5.3 percent to $253.4 billion, though this is slower than last year’s 8.7 percent growth. Mobile commerce is now dominant, expected to account for 56 percent of online spend. Salesforce underscores the transformative role of technology, forecasting that artificial intelligence will drive 21 percent of global holiday orders, representing $263 billion in sales. In the U.S. alone, Salesforce expects digital sales to reach $288 billion, up 2.1 percent.
For sports and fitness brands, the message is clear:
- A mobile-first sales environment is critical.
- AI-driven personalization through product recommendations, search, and promotions helps to capture consumer attention.
- Seamless omnichannel experiences (e.g., buy online/pick up in store, flexible returns, and real-time inventory) are key to capturing demand.
Brick-and-Mortar Still Matters, Especially When the Value is Clear
While foot traffic forecasts suggest a flatter season overall, key promotional moments continue to draw strong in-person engagement. Sensormatic predicts flat to slightly down traffic, with Black Friday visits this year falling 2.1 percent compared to 2024. Yet NRF reported a record 203 million shoppers over Thanksgiving weekend, suggesting that consumers will still show up in large numbers when value and convenience are clear. This duality – sluggish overall traffic but surges around key promotional events – underscores the need for sports and fitness retailers and brands to create compelling in-store experiences that complement their digital strategies.
Sports and fitness brands can win by:
- Creating experiential moments that complement digital touchpoints.
- Showcasing bundles and value-forward offerings.
- Highlighting quality, durability, and wellness benefits, especially important in a tariff-impacted pricing environment.
Consumers are not abandoning stores. They are visiting with purpose.
Evolving Consumer Behaviors Are Redefining the Season
Consumer sentiment remains fragile. Surveys show confidence sliding to four-month lows, with tariffs and inflation weighing heavily on perceptions of affordability. The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) notes that tariffs are driving footwear prices higher, a trend that resonates across the sports and fitness sector. FDRA reported that retail footwear prices rose 1.4% year-over-year in August. At the same time, new consumer habits are emerging. Reports suggest that up to 40 percent of holiday shopping may involve secondhand gifts, reflecting both sustainability concerns and budget-consciousness.
Early Season Signals Point to Steady, Digital-Led Performance
Early results from October and Cyber Week provide further clarity. Adobe reported that online holiday spending grew 8.2 percent in October, while overall retail sales showed modest growth ahead of the holidays. Circana tracked a 2 percent increase in October U.S. retail revenue. Cyber Monday sales climbed 7 percent online, reinforcing the strength of digital channels. Yet Deloitte noted that Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending fell 4 percent compared to last year, highlighting the unevenness of consumer engagement.
What This Means for Sports & Fitness Brands
Combining these results and reports together, the 2025 holiday season is defined by moderation. Growth is slowing, sentiment is cautious, and consumers are prioritizing value. But within this environment, e-commerce and digital innovation are thriving. For sports and fitness brands, the path forward is clear: lean into digital channels, embrace AI-driven personalization, and craft promotions that emphasize affordability, durability, and wellness benefits. But do not neglect the in-store experience. While traffic may be flat overall, consumers are still willing to show up in record numbers when the deals are compelling.
The sports and fitness industry has always thrived on resilience and adaptation. This holiday season is no different. By meeting consumers where they are – online, mobile, and value-conscious – while still offering engaging in-store experiences, brands can turn a cautious holiday landscape into an opportunity for growth and connection with consumers.
Citations:
PwC: Holiday Outlook 2025 (click here), Deloitte: Holiday Retail Forecast (click here, SGB Media article here ), Deloitte: 2025 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey (click here), Deloitte: Black Friday-Cyber Monday Shoppers Rein in Spending (Click here), Bain: 2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook (click here), National Retail Federation (NRF): Winter Holiday Data and Trends (click here), National Retail Federation (NRF): Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend Draws a Record 203 Million Shoppers (click here),Circana: 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions Report (click here, SGB Media article here), Circana: October Retail Sales Reveal the Impact of Headwinds Challenging Consumers, Reports Circana (click here, SGB Media article here), Adobe: 2025 Holiday Shopping Trends (click here), Adobe: Adobe: Consumers spent $88.7 billion online (Oct 2025), up 8.2% year-over-year, with AI-powered shopping continuing to rise (click here) Salesforce: With $1.25T in Holiday Sales Up for Grabs, LLMs Emerge as New Frontier for Search (click here), Sensormatic: Holiday 2025: Sensormatic Solutions reveals global predictions for retail’s busiest days (click here), Sensormatic: U.S. retail traffic was in-line with year-to-date trends on Black Friday, according to Sensormatic Solutions ShopperTrak Analytics (click here), University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers (click here, SGM Media article here), Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA): New Survey: 75% of Consumers Say Shoe Prices Are Rising — Tariffs Blamed as Holiday Shopping Season Begins (click here, SGB Media article here), ThredUp: ThredUp Report Reveals 40% of Holiday Budgets Will Go to Secondhand Gifts (click here).